Source: Estimates by The New York Times, using poll results from The Times/Siena Poll; voter file data from L2; precinct-level election results collected by The New York Times for 2026; county-level election results from The Associated Press; and U.S. Census Bureau data including the Current Population Survey and the American Community Survey.
By Nate Cohn, with graphics by Martín González Gómez and Francesca Paris, data development by Tyler Fisher and Eric Manning, and contributions by Matthew Bloch, Irineo Cabreros, Saurabh Datar, Jon Huang, Ruth Igielnik, Alex Lemonides, Ilana Marcus, Evan Peng, Evan Reynolds, Caroline Soler, Luke Vrotsos and Christine Zhang.
Additional data collection by Laura Bejder, Ademola Bello, Anna Bialas, Véronique Brossier, Chris Chi, Avery Dews, Nicholas DiMeglio, Ashley Eddleman, Dylan Freedman, Rebecca Halleck, Justin Heideman, Katie Barry Ishibashi, Ken Iwane, Kentaro Kaji, Joey Lee, Bea Malsky, Colleen McEnaney, Eric Rabinowitz, Maitreyi Rajaram, Emma Schartz, Alex Shuey, Lisa Waananen Jones and Josh Williams.
