The world is expected to experience record-breaking heat over the next five years, with global temperatures likely to repeatedly cross the critical climate safety limit, according to new projections by the United Nations.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) says there is a 75% chance that average global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 will rise above 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels.
This limit was set under the 2015 Paris climate agreement as a threshold to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
Scientists warn that even a slight increase beyond this level can have serious consequences, including loss of ecosystems like coral reefs and glaciers, along with rising risks to human life.
The report also predicts rapid warming in the Arctic, which could heat up nearly 1.66 degrees Celsius by 2030 — much faster than the global average. At the same time, the Amazon region may face hotter and drier conditions, increasing the risk of drought and wildfires.
Experts say continued burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and gas is driving global temperatures higher, leading to more extreme weather events like floods, heatwaves, and prolonged droughts.
Climate scientist Friederike Otto said that even one year above the 1.5-degree mark could trigger extreme conditions beyond what societies are prepared for. “We could see deadly heat, food shortages, and more intense wildfires,” she warned.
Short-term forecasts also point to a likely strong El Niño event, a natural warming pattern in the Pacific Ocean that can further raise global temperatures. As a result, 2027 could surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record.
If current trends continue, the planet could warm at a faster pace than before — about 0.25 degrees Celsius per decade, compared to earlier rates of around 0.2 degrees.
The Arctic is warming at alarming rate
The Arctic is expected to warm about 3.5 times faster than the global average due to shrinking ice and snow, which normally reflect sunlight. As ice melts, more heat is absorbed, worsening the cycle of warming.
The WMO estimates that Arctic winters in the coming years could be significantly warmer than recent decades, while summer sea ice will continue to decline.
Amazon faces growing risks
The Amazon basin is also at risk of becoming hotter and drier, which could increase wildfire threats and disrupt water supplies for millions of people. Scientists warn that the region could shift from absorbing carbon dioxide to releasing it, worsening climate change.
Meanwhile, parts of Africa’s Sahel region may receive heavier rainfall than usual, raising the risk of flooding.
Global efforts still falling short
UN officials say current global efforts to tackle climate change are not enough to slow down rising temperatures.
“Global heating is still increasing faster than efforts to control it,” said UN climate chief Simon Stiell. He pointed to extreme heat in regions like Europe and India as evidence of the growing human and economic costs.
“From heatwaves and floods to wildfires and food shortages, every country is already facing serious impacts from climate change,” he added.
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