Mapping the Knockout Stage: Where Will Your Team Play in the World Cup?

The World Cup is almost here. Of the 48 teams, 32 will advance from the opening group stage to the knockout stage — a single-elimination bracket of matches to be played in 15 stadiums across North America.

But where, exactly, could your team play after surviving the group?

If the United States wins its group, for example, it will play its first elimination match in Santa Clara, Calif. If it finishes second, it will head to Arlington, Texas. But if it finishes third, it could play in Boston, New York or Kansas City, Mo. — or not at all, depending on how teams finish in other groups.

So where a team plays its knockout games depends on its three matches in the group stage, which begins June 11. To estimate each team’s chances of getting out of its group, we used data from sportsbooks and prediction markets to measure team strength:

We then simulated the tournament hundreds of thousands of times and counted up the number of times each team played at a given site.

The odds could shift drastically as the tournament progresses, so make travel plans at your own risk. Eight third-place teams will make the knockout stage, which could easily add some late chaos — an extra-time goal in the final group game could change a team’s destination by 3,000 miles.

You can use the tables below to look up probabilities for any team or any of the 15 cities where elimination matches will be held. We’ll update this page with the latest odds every day until the group stage begins.