Bangladesh’s possible Mecca pact membership could strain India ties

Bangladesh could consider joining the Mecca Pact, a mutual defence agreement signed this month by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, State Minister for Foreign Affairs Humaiun Kobir said.

“The move could complicate Dhaka’s ties with India, already strained over several issues,” he said.

The comments come at a sensitive time in Bangladesh-India relations under Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s six-month-old government.

“Dhaka is also awaiting New Delhi’s response to its extradition request for former prime minister Sheikh Hasina, who has lived in exile in India since her ouster in a protest movement in August 2024.”

Complications in ties with India

Analysts said New Delhi was unlikely to welcome Bangladesh’s membership of a security alliance that includes arch-foe Pakistan, although Dhaka would ultimately need to weigh the broader economic and strategic consequences of such a move.

The prime minister has yet to decide whether to visit India, Rahman’s spokesperson said this month, as Dhaka awaits New Delhi’s response to its extradition request for Hasina.

Dhaka has previously called for a “propitious environment” for such a visit after Hasina spoke to journalists in New Delhi this month, a move criticised by Bangladesh.

India’s foreign ministry spokesperson on the Mecca pact said it was closely following developments in West Asia.

The perception of alignment could create risks for Bangladesh’s export-driven economy, reliant on stable commercial and diplomatic ties with a wide range of partners, said Asif Shahan, a development studies professor at Dhaka University.

“If Bangladesh joins this alliance, several countries, including India, will not be pleased,” Shahan added. “However, that should not be the basis of Bangladesh’s decision.”

Test of long-standing foreign policy

Analysts say joining a military alliance would test Bangladesh’s long-standing foreign policy of avoiding rival geopolitical camps to help it attract investment, expand exports and maintain economic ties with competing powers.

The economy relies on exports of readymade garments, most of which go to Britain, the European Union and the United States, while remittances from millions of workers abroad, mainly in the Middle East, are a major source of foreign exchange.

Formal alliance membership could complicate Bangladesh’s ties not just with India, but also China, Iran, Japan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Russia, the United Arab Emirates and the United States, said geopolitical analyst Kollol Kibria.

“These relationships would not automatically break, but once Bangladesh joins a military bloc, the question of which side Bangladesh is on becomes much harder to avoid,” Kibria said.

Mecca pact

“If there is a security arrangement among Islamic nations in the Middle East, it is not unusual for us to consider participating. It is being viewed positively,” said State Minister for Foreign Affairs Humaiun Kobir. 

“They are inviting the leadership of Bangladesh, particularly Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, to come and participate,” he told reporters on Monday (24 August).

A source in the Bangladesh foreign ministry told Reuters that Saudi Arabia had invited Dhaka to join the pact, but did not say when the invitation was made. The source sought anonymity as he was not authorised to speak to the media.

The three Sunni Muslim-majority countries signed the agreement, modelled on Nato’s collective-defence principle, in the Saudi holy city of Mecca this month.

They pledged that an armed attack on one member would be treated as an attack on all, amid heightened tension in the regional conflagration that has brought Iranian missile fire across the Middle East.

Bangladesh, like Turkey, is a secular republic, although more than 90% of its population identifies as Sunni Muslim.

Asked for comment on the minister’s remarks, the embassies of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan in the South Asian country did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Turkey, which has Nato’s second-largest army, has said the pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan and top oil exporter Saudi Arabia was open to expansion.