The US-Israel war on Iran, before reaching a ceasefire agreement just yesterday, highlighted a longstanding vulnerability of Bangladesh – Bangladesh’s only refinery, Eastern Refinery Limited (ERL), has not been significantly modernised or expanded in more than five decades.
This issue had also surfaced during the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, when attempts to process Russian crude failed due to the refinery’s outdated configuration. Despite that experience, little progress was made in upgrading its capacity.
As the Iran war disrupted supplies from the Middle East — the country’s primary source of oil and gas imports, the state-run Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) has started exploring crude options beyond Middle Eastern countries, while also seeking technical recommendations from Eastern Refinery on suitable crude specifications.
Since ERL cannot process all types of crude oil, the BPC is carefully assessing transport costs, compatibility and by-product impacts before moving ahead with imports from new sources.
Former caretaker government adviser and energy expert M Tamim said the Middle East remains the most cost-effective source due to proximity, but stressed that the planned second unit of ERL must include modern facilities capable of refining a wider range of crude types to ensure energy security during crises.
Search for alternatives intensifies
Apart from closing the Strait of Hormuz, the Middle East war also caused output cuts in the region’s major energy facilities, resulting in force majeure by key suppliers for Bangladesh.
In March, shipments of crude oil from Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi – each carrying around 1 lakh tonnes – were cancelled. As a result, Bangladesh did not receive any crude consignments during the month. Authorities have since secured a replacement shipment from Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port for next month, though at a slightly higher cost of about $0.25 per barrel.
According to ERL officials, the refinery was originally designed to process Arabian Light crude from Saudi Arabia and Murban crude from the UAE. Heavier crude types, such as those from Russia, cannot be refined using the existing setup. With no blending facility in place, the refinery lacks flexibility to adapt to alternative sources.
To address this, ERL has analysed crude specifications from several countries – including Nigeria, Azerbaijan, Norway, Angola, and the UK – and submitted its findings to BPC. The corporation is now reviewing these options, considering both economic and technical feasibility.
BPC General Manager (Commercial and Operations) Muhammad Morshed Hossain Azad said work on alternative sourcing is ongoing, adding that maintaining a diversified supply line will be important even if the geopolitical situation stabilises.
Capacity constraints remain a major concern
Bangladesh imports between 65 lakh and 68 lakh tonnes of fuel annually, with crude oil accounting for about 15 lakh tonnes — all refined at ERL. The country also imports around 45 lakh tonnes of refined fuel, mainly diesel, from countries like India and China.
Despite rising demand, refining capacity has remained stagnant since independence. This has forced Bangladesh to rely heavily on costly refined fuel imports, increasing pressure on foreign currency reserves.
A long-delayed project to build ERL’s second unit – which would double refining capacity to 30 lakh tonnes annually – has faced repeated setbacks. Although the project was first proposed in 2010 and approved in various forms over the years, it took more than a decade and a half to receive final approval.
The project, now estimated to cost around Tk31,000 crore, was approved by the Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (Ecnec) in December last year. Authorities are exploring financing options, including potential loans from external sources such as the Islamic Development Bank.
Officials say the new unit will be designed with greater flexibility to process a wider range of crude oil, addressing one of the key weaknesses of the current refinery.
Until then, Bangladesh remains exposed to global supply shocks — with limited capacity to adapt quickly when its primary fuel sources are disrupted.
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