History tells us that the party in power generally loses congressional seats in midterm elections. Yesterday’s New York Times/Siena poll showed that Democrats should be in a good position to pick some up. Democrats had an 11-point lead when registered voters were asked which party’s candidate they would support for Congress — well ahead of where voters ranked Democrats earlier in this cycle, writes Nate Cohn, our chief political analyst.
Currently, Republicans hold narrow majorities in both the House and the Senate. Democrats need to gain three seats in the House and four seats in the Senate to flip control of Congress. And polling is an important bellwether for their chances. But congressional maps can confound voter sentiment and polarize races, as these charts from my colleague Ashley Wu show.
For Democrats in particular, they pose a problem. A month ago, the party expected a blue wave. Then the Supreme Court said a new congressional map in Louisiana, drawn to protect Black representation in Congress, was an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. After that, Republican-led states across the South went to work. Louisiana is crafting a new map. Florida drew one aimed at getting rid of four seats that leaned toward Democrats. Tennessee designed one that would give Republicans an additional seat.
Voters in California and Virginia opted to go in the other direction, authorizing their leaders to draw maps that would create new Democratic seats. The Supreme Court in Virginia threw out that state’s measure — and four seats for the left — early this month.
The Trump loyalty test
One race to watch closely today is the Republican primary in Kentucky, where Representative Thomas Massie, who has clashed with President Trump, is trying to keep his seat against Ed Gallrein, a challenger backed by the president.
Kentucky has an unpredictable political landscape, Reid Epstein reported. It’s a deep-red state with a Democratic governor. One of its senators is an insider’s insider, Mitch McConnell, who is retiring. The other is Rand Paul, an outsider libertarian. Reid’s just terrific:
Ever since Daniel Boone crossed the Cumberland Gap into what is now Kentucky, the state has served as an incubator for colorful figures who stand out for their quirks, their rejection of party orthodoxy and their national success despite long odds.
Massie and Gallrein fit right into that tradition. Will voters prefer their incumbent — a libertarian-leaning maverick — or vote instead for a MAGA-aligned former Navy SEAL with a huge war chest and no experience in holding office? (Yesterday, in an unusual move, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth traveled to Kentucky to stump for Gallrein.)
The result in the race, already one of the costliest this year, will be a referendum on loyalty to Trump, Robert Draper wrote. Republicans would see a Gallrein victory as evidence that the president’s hold over the party remains absolute, he said. (On Saturday, Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana lost his Republican primary after Trump backed Cassidy’s challenger. Cassidy, the party’s loudest vaccine defender, had voted to convict Trump in his impeachment trial five years ago.)
Massie, of course, hopes he’ll hold on. “You can send him a message,” Massie said at a campaign event last week, talking about the president. “He needs to work with me because I ain’t going anywhere.”
More on today’s primaries: There are crowded races for governor in Georgia and senator in Alabama. And in Pennsylvania, a tight House contest has united the left and center flanks of the Democratic Party. Reid explains all those races, and more, here.
MOSQUE SHOOTING
Three men were killed yesterday outside a San Diego mosque, and two suspected shooters — both teenagers — were found dead in a nearby car along with anti-Islamic writing, officials said. Both suspects appeared to have shot themselves.
THE LATEST NEWS
OpenAI Trial
A secretive organization known as GAESA controls much of Cuba’s economy. Run by the military, it owns high-end hotels and tourist attractions, gas stations, supermarkets, the island’s only internet provider and a major commercial bank.
The Castro family helps control it, and military leaders take home most of the profits. While Cuba often blames American sanctions for its financial problems, GAESA has a big role, too. Read about this secretive organization, whose finances do not appear on the government’s budget.
OPINIONS
N.B.A.: Victor Wembanyama joined playoff royalty with 41 points and 24 rebounds in the San Antonio Spurs’ 122-115 double-overtime win over the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals.
N.H.L.: The Montreal Canadiens won their Eastern Conference semifinals series against the Buffalo Sabres after Alex Newhook scored in overtime for a 3-2 victory in Game 7.
RECIPE OF THE DAY
Genevieve Ko’s recipe for ginger-scallion chicken and rice draws inspiration from the classic Hainanese chicken rice, but isn’t quite so fussy or complicated. You can and should make it on a weeknight, with some quickly wok-fried string beans on the side.
Meet Naomi Ackie, the British actress who’s heading, she hopes, toward a breakout this year, with powerful roles in Boots Riley’s “I Love Boosters” and DC Studios’ “Clayface.” “Acting doesn’t scare me right now,” she told T Magazine. “I like feeling a little scared.”
More on culture
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Jesmyn Ward has a new book of essays out, “On Witness and Respair.” I liked Dwight Garner’s review. On Ward’s writing about blue-collar Black life in the South, he says, “She keeps everyone in the frame, and deals out facts and impressions so deftly that she makes you recall Saul Bellow’s comment that a fact is a wire through which one sends a current.”
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Drake dropped his long anticipated album “Iceman” last week, alongside two surprise other albums: “Habibti” and “Maid of Honour.” The Popcast team broke down all three on their podcast.
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Late night hosts wondered what Trump brought back from China.
THE MORNING RECOMMENDS
Listen to Patrick Radden Keefe read his latest book, “London Falling,” about the mysterious death of a young man who pretended to be someone he was not, and his parents’ attempts to discover what happened before he jumped off a balcony into the Thames. Annoyingly, Keefe’s not just a good writer. The audio version’s magnetic.
Protect yourself from melanoma with these expert tips. (Sunscreen, obvs.)
Replace your sheets with one of the sets recommended by Wirecutter. You’ll go to sleep feeling like a million bucks for quite a bit less than that. 🛏️😴
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